Odd Stat Of The Day - 3/1/19

Oh, hi there! It's me, @OddStats. From the Twitter.  No?  Doesn't ring a bell?  Welcome back from your coma. You won't believe what you've missed.

Anyway, after begging Ramp for months to let me sully his precious world wide web portal with my work, he finally relented and accepted on undisclosed terms.

Today, we're going to talk about amazing two-month returns on the S&P 500 Index ($SPX).

As February 2019 has just ended, we've recorded a return for Jan/Feb 2019 of +11.1%.

Here's a list of every two-month return over +10.0% since electronic trading began in 1983 and how $SPX did going forward. It has been quite bullish but...

20190228 SPX Best Two Month Returns Since 1983.png

A few things you should take notice of:

  1. 5 of the 26 prior events saw the peak that began a -20% sell off (a little thing we like to call a "Bear Market") within the next calendar year.

  2. That didn't mean the market couldn't skyrocket first.  Check out July 1997, which saw a one year return of +17.4% but also saw the peak of the market that began the next Bear toward the end of that year.

  3. All but one of the 26 prior events saw a draw down of some sort from the end of each +10% two month period.

  4. There hadn't been a two month return (before right now) of +10% or more since the end of 2011.

  5. 13 of the 26 prior events saw the beginning of a -10% peak-to-trough correction within the next calendar year.

Good luck out there and remember to protect yourself at all times.