Get lucky. End of story.
In reality, there is a ton of luck involved. I don’t appreciate when I get beat by my wife who makes her tournament picks based on her favorite team mascot or “their jerseys look cute”.
This year I’m going to focus on the historical performance and statistics like a true market technician would (assuming we have absolute faith in the ranking committee).
Every year there are four #1 seeds that look unstoppable until they all meet each other in the Final Four, then all bets are off. But, picking your Final Four to contain all of the #1 seeds has historically been a terrible bet.
Based on the data in the table below you should be selecting at least two #1 seeds to reach the Final Four. The reason you wouldn’t select only one #1 team to reach the Final Four (even though it has a higher percentage) is because the combined percentage that two or more teams will make it is greater. I’ll give you some time to go back now and erase a couple of those #1 seeds you already penciled in.